The unpredictability of the political situation in the European Union is the greatest threat to the Polish economy," believes Henryka Bochniarz, President of the Lewiatan Confederation. According to the expert, Europe is in disarray, and only strong and stable can oppose what could happen in the USA or China. The results of elections in France and Germany will be crucial.
- We live in a world where we do not know what may be a greater threat. I am not afraid of what will happen in the United States, because it seems to me that this system is safe as far as the institutions are concerned - the functioning of the Congress, the impeachment, so that the President will be under quite a big control. I think that the greatest threat, however, results from the unpredictability of what will happen in the European Union,' Henryka Bochniarz, President of the Lewiatan Confederation, predicts in an interview with the Newseria Biznes news agency.
The World Bank estimates that the uncertainty index is currently at the highest level since 1997, the beginning of its publication. In 2016 elections were held in countries that account for 40% of world GDP, including the United States. Analysts warned even before the election that Donald Trump's victory would mean uncertainty on world markets. This year the elections will be held in countries generating 30% of global GDP, including China, Germany and France. According to Bochniarz, it is the geopolitical changes in 2017 that will have a significant impact on Poland.
- We are aware that even after the declarations of Prime Minister Theresa May, not much will happen, and only after the opening of the negotiation process. We have no idea what the attitude to this will be like in the EU, because there are very different tendencies there - Bochniarz points out.
The referendum of 2016, in which the British voted for leaving the European Union, was a shock to most analysts. The British Parliament is working on a law that will allow Prime Minister Teresa May to launch the exit procedure from the EU. The consent of the House of Commons and the House of Lords is necessary because, according to the Supreme Court, the government cannot activate Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty alone. Formally, brexit is to start in the first quarter.
However, the negotiations may take several years, all the more so as the British Prime Minister is announcing a tough brexit, and among other EU members there is no shortage of votes to punish the British people for such a decision.
- There is also a big risk of elections in France, maybe less in Germany, because we all believe that nothing will change there. However, instead of concentrating on one goal, how to be a strong, economically and politically compact organism to oppose what will happen in the United States or China, Europe is in disarray - stresses the president of the Leviathan Confederation.
In the spring presidential elections in France, one of the main candidates remains Marine Le Pen, leader of the National Front. She announces that after winning the elections she will hold a referendum on France's EU membership. Observers believe that her victory may threaten stability in Europe and arouse separatist tendencies in the Community. In Germany, Chancellor Angela Merkel cannot be sure of her re-election in the September elections. The former President of the European Parliament Martin Schulz is a serious rival. The new authorities will also elect the Dutch next month. The polls give an advantage to the anti-European Freedom Party Geert Wilders.
- The EU's lack of unity must be a concern. There is no denying that we, as Poland, are not very much in tune with the need to stabilize this Union and to make it stronger than it is at the moment - convinces Henryka Bochniarz.